Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 3/2016

The Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy is an Eesti Pank review released four times a year that summarises the main recent events in the global and Estonian economies. Twice a year, in June and December, the review also contains the forecast for the Estonian economy for the current year and the next two calendar years. Here is a short summery of the report.

The economy of the European Union and that of the euro area have been moving in the direction of more certain growth in recent years, though growth in the second quarter was again slower than in previous quarters and uncertainty about the future was increased by the referendum in the United Kingdom in June, in which the voters chose to leave the European Union.

Revised data put growth in the Estonian economy at 0.8% in the second quarter, leaving it below its long-term potential.

Although the unit labour cost based real effective exchange rate of the euro has appreciated for Estonia, exporting companies consider their competitiveness in the European Union market and further afield to be stronger than in the beginning of the year

Having fallen for more than two years, prices rose in August and took consumer price inflation back into positive territory.

Strong growth in wage income and consumption has boosted tax revenues. Tax revenues have also been raised by higher excise rates for alcohol, tobacco and fuels.

The main development in commodities markets in the second quarter was the drop in the oil price. It remains higher than it was at the end of last year though.

The euro area economy grew in the second quarter by 0.3% and by 1.6% over the year.

Increasing employment and low energy prices boosted purchasing power and so private consumption, which was again the main factor driving economic growth in the first quarter.

The contribution of investment to economic growth remained positive in the first half of this year, but growth in investment slowed in the second quarter.

Inflation remained close to zero in the euro area in the first half of the year.

Read more from Bank of Estonia website

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