The balance of payments indicators continue to reflect the two developments which started in the second half of 2007: falling domestic demand and simultaneous rapid growth of goods and services exports. Measured in current prices, the cost of imported goods was 4% higher year-on-year, whereas goods exports increased by 17%. As a result, the 2008 third-quarter trade balance deficit declined by slightly more than 30%.
Services exports, of which approximately 40% were various business services, expanded also year-on-year. The contribution of auxiliary transport services was considerable as usual, accounting for 30% of the growth. The annual growth rate of communication services and passenger transport in the third quarter was the fastest in 2008. In addition, the volume of construction abroad has remained almost unchanged during the year.
Different from the earlier quarters of 2008, current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter also due to decreasing investment income. On the one hand, income inflow picked up, reflecting the successful operation of Estonian enterprises abroad in recent past. On the other hand, foreign investors’ capital in Estonia decreased due to the declining profitability caused by the global recession. All in all, the year-on-year outflow of investment income dropped by over 2pp to quarterly GDP and the total current account deficit declined to 7.5%.
Taking into account the economic downturn, the third-quarter capital inflow was smaller than before, as expected, but the structure of cash flows was similar to the previous year’s average. Direct investment inflow still covered about a third of the current account deficit and in portfolio investment, investment abroad to spread the risks of Estonian investors prevailed.
External balance will continue to improve also in the next quarters, though more slowly and depending on the volume of goods imports.
Author: Andres Saarniit, Adviser to the Economics Department of Eesti Pank
Source: Bank of Estonia
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